Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
