A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
